New Russia celebrates independence 18 years after Soviet collapse

A look at how our former Soviet neighbors are developing and how they feel about Russia

Few Russians know what holiday they’re celebrating on June 12 as the date is noteworthy for two reasons. On June 12, 1990, Soviet leader Boris Yeltsin signed the declaration “On the State Sovereignty of the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic.” And exactly one year later Yeltsin became the Russian Federation’s first president. Undoubtedly Russians know both dates. But each year on June 12 they are actually celebrating Russia’s independence. Ex-President Vladimir Putin issued a decree in 2001 marking the date as the state holiday “Russia Day.”

Who is Russia independent of? How are the sovereign, once brotherly Soviet republics faring today? We analyzed the present situation in the post-Soviet world and studied synopses provided by the Center for Post-Industrial Researches Director Vladislav Inozemtsev and Globalization and Social Movement Institute Director Boris Bagarlitskiy.

Belarus

Population: In 1989, 10.2 million; Today, 9.75 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $3,792

Economic Growth: 8.6%

Average Wage: $376.60

Rating of Benevolence to Russia*: 80%

Synopsis

Inozemtsev: “Belarus is more economically tied with Russia than the other former Soviet republics. It needs our gas. Commodity circulation in other sectors is also large between Russia and Belarus. At the moment, any talks about Belarus becoming closer to Russia are only words as the Belarusian elite doesn’t want the country to be a member of a unified state. But Russia buys their idle talk and indulges Lukashenko with discounted prices on gas.”

KP Commentary

Six years ago, Lukashenko promised to introduce the Russian ruble. Twelve years have passed since Russian and Belarus signed the agreement on a unified state. Indeed, we are officially a single nation. Only the presidents of Russia and Belarus are different.

Moldova

Population: In 1989, 4.338 million; Today, 4.1 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $876

Economic Growth: 4%

Average Wage: $226

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 52%

Synopsis

Inozemtsev: “We hardly have ties with Moldova — especially after the wine embargo. Moldovans consider themselves Europeans. But still they have serious points of discontent with Romania. They haven’t even been able to sign an agreement on the Moldovan-Romanian border.”

KP Commentary

Gastarbeiters compose one third of Moldova’s able-bodied population. Half of them work in Russia. In January-February 2008, they sent $186 million to Moldova in remittances. The average wage in Moldova is the lowest in Europe: 0.2 euro cents per hour.

Armenia

Population: In 1989, 3.228 million; Today, 3 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $2,128

Economic Growth: 13.7%

Average Wage: $270.80

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 85%

Synopsis

Kagarlitskiy: “An anecdote. An Armenian caught a rabbit and brought it home to his wife.

“‘Boil this.’

“‘There’s no water.’

“‘Then fry it.’

“‘There’s no gas.’

“‘Well then put it in the microwave…’

“‘There’s no electricity!’

“The husband grabbed the rabbit and threw it out the window.

‘Welcome to independent Armenia!'”

Kagarlitskiy: “The Armenians maintain a relationship with Iran and fight Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Moscow supports Azerbaijan’s stance in the conflict. So it’s unlucky Armenia is Russia’s satellite state.”

Kazakhstan

Population: In 1989, 16.536 million; Today, 15.581 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $5,043

Economic Growth: 8.5%

Average Wage: $434

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 84%

Synopsis

Inozemtsev: “Unlike Russia, Kazakhstan has gas and oil pipelines to China. Energy-wise, nearly all the Central Asian republics are quietly turning to the flag with the rising sun. I’m afraid it’s impossible to curtail this allegiance. And we ourselves are to blame. We downplayed Kazakhstan’s significance in our foreign policy too often.”

Uzbekistan

Population: In 1989, 19.905  million; Today, 26.851 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $598

Economic Growth: 9.5%

Average Wage: $210

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 85%

Synopsis

Kagarlitskiy: “Uzbekistan needs us for our power factor. But if Moscow starts to exert strength, Tashkent will turn toward the U.S. and China. And vice versa. In the early 2000s, the U.S. started to activate its resources in Uzbekistan. As a result, the Uzbeks quickly ‘made friends’ with the Russians and asked the U.S. to free the Khanabad aerodrome. So the current friendship between Moscow and Tashkent could end quite abruptly.”

Kyrgyz Republic

Population: In 1989, 4.29 million; Today, 5.166 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $536

Economic Growth: 7.3%

Average Wage: $120.90

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 84%

Synopsis

Kagarlitskiy: “The Kyrgyz Republic hasn’t been able to remain stable since the Tulip Revolution. In a cultural sense the nation has benevolent feelings for Russia. The nationalism sometimes seen among the Kazakhs isn’t as apparent in the Kyrgyz Republic.”

Tajikistan

Population: In 1989, 5.109  million; Today, 7.163 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $424

Economic Growth: 7.3%

Average Wage: $60

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 90%

Synopsis

Kagarlitskiy: “The nation wouldn’t have survived without Russian and Kazakh aid. Today, only Russia ensures Tajikistan’s statehood.”

KP Commentary

The Tajiks are the poorest among former Soviet nations (63% live on less than $2 per day), but they aren’t dying out with 26 births per 1,000 people. Russia’s figure is half as high. A third of Tajikistan’s population works in Russia.

Turkmenistan

Population: In 1989, 3.534 million; Today, 6.786 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $1,327

Economic Growth: Roughly 10% (The Turkmen don’t publish this information.)

Average Wage: $140

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 42%

Synopsis

Kagarlitskiy: “The country is self-sufficient, yet underdeveloped and unstable. It houses a single clan. It’s also quite clear Turkmenistan wants Russian investment.”

Inozemtsev: “Don’t get carried away with the idea that the Turkmens want to return to Russia. There’s nothing Russia in Turkmenistan. The country is completely closed and has almost no ties with us — economic or cultural.”

Azerbaijan

Population: In 1989, 7.38 million; Today, 8.436 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $2362

Economic Growth: 30%

Average Wage: $273

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 35%

Synopsis

Kagarlitskiy: “Azerbaijan basically has a monarchy. The country’s economy is larger than Turkmenistan’s and integrated with Russia’s. We have fairly close ties.”

KP Commentary

Heydar Aliyev’s successor Ilham has a good head on his shoulders. Azerbaijan is participating in the construction of the Nabukko pipeline bypassing Russia and Europe.

Lithuania

Population: In 1989, 3.690  million; Today, 3.366  million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $7505

Economic Growth: 8%

Average Wage: $930

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 43%

Synopsis

Kagarlitskiy: “The Lithuanians were always the most fiery anti-Soviets. Now they’re indifferent about their Estonian and Latvian neighbors and greeting Russian tourists with open arms.”

KP Commentary

Lithuania is also exceptional for its birthrate, which is 218th in the world (of 222). The Lithuanians commit suicide and die in automobile accidents more than residents of other European nations. Last year the country became Europe’s leader in the number of emigrants. The Lithuanians are moving to the more developed Western European nations and the U.S.

Latvia

Population: In 1989, 2.680 million; Today, 2.295 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $781

Economic Growth: 10.5%

Average Wage: $897

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 50%

Georgia

Population: In 1989, 5.443 million; Today, 4.7 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $1,746

Economic Growth: 11.4%

Average Wage: $130

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 49%

Synopsis

Kagarlitskiy: “The country has almost no economy. At one point Russia couldn’t feed Georgia. So the country has turned to the West and hopes to be saved from a hungry death.”

Inozemtsev: “But Saakashvilli was able to shatter the bureaucratic system. He gave the private economic sector the opportunity to grow.”

KP Commentary

Besides Borzhomi, wine and mandarins, the Georgians have another strategic product. Last year Saakashvilli made $32 million on pine cones. They’re good for the health and grow in the Borzhomi Gorge among mineral waters.

Saakashvilli and Yushchenko have taken their countries along the path of colored revolutions.

Ukraine

Population: In 1989, 51.707 million; Today, 46.337 million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $2,287

Economic Growth: 7,3%

Average Wage: $344.50

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 88%

Synopsis

Kagarlitskiy: “Ukraine is tightly connected with Russia. Our business presence is remarkable there. The power-consuming Ukrainian economy needs our gas. And we need Ukraine as it is the cheapest transit route for our energy suppliers.”

Inozemtsev: “Ukraine isn’t choosing between Russia and the West. It’s floundering between the West and independence. Talks about Ukraine sooner or later splitting and its eastern half joining Russia are unfounded. In terms of Ukraine’s economy, the country’s business elite understood long ago that it’s easier to work with the European system than compete with Russia’s oligarchs on post-Soviet territory.”

One of the biggest conflicts with Ukraine is over the fate of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.

Estonia

Population: In 1989, 1.573  million; Today, 1.324  million

Welfare: GDP per capita — $12,007

Economic Growth: 6.4%

Average Wage: $1,233

Rating of Benevolence to Russia: 51%

Synopsis

Kagarlitskiy: “In my opinion everything is clear in terms of our neighbors Estonia and Latvia. And here’s the paradox. Russian can be heard more and more in these countries. There are more and more Russians there, especially in Tallinn and Riga. So the Baltic states have nowhere to run.”

KP Commentary

Not long ago, the Estonians were surprised to learn that the country’s most common last name is “Ivanov.” READ MORE

Abkhazia waits for new war with Georgia: “If the Russians leave, tomorrow NATO will be just outside Sochi”

KP special correspondent Darya Aslamova is sure only force can tear the small proud Abkhazia Republic from Russia

It was Aug. 14, 1992. I woke up at 06:00 in the morning at Stalin’s old dacha. The Georgian Army was everywhere. Soldiers were sleeping side-by-side. Tropical birds sang in the nearby garden. I had just sat down on the windowsill under the sun to do my eyebrows when I saw Georgian Defense Minister Kintovani waddling to the sea in a wet towel.

“War in a resort town?” I thought. “What nonsense!”

“How many hours until the war?” I shouted to him. “Will I have time to get to Sukhumi?”

“You’ve got two hours,” he answered.

I remember walking with my friend to Sukhumi. We bought the only remaining cucumber at an empty city market and a bottle of Soviet champagne. I remember the pained face of Sergey Bagapsh, who is today’s Abkhazian president. He must have sat alone in the huge empty building housing the Cabinet of Ministers waiting for the world to end.

I remember how the first bursts of machine gun fire forced us into the home of a stranger — a woman named Emma who was shaken with fear. We sat on the floor drinking champagne and eating the cucumber as all hell broke loose around us.

I remember how the Georgian Army raked the sweet resort town with fire.

Drunk soldiers smashed storefront windows and robbed the goods. One soldier even handed me a bottle of fake French perfume.

“Here!” he said. “Take this. I won’t worry over it!”

On that violent August day, all seemed lost for Abkhazia.

“The Abkhazia campaign is over,” Kintovani said victoriously before his flight to Tbilisi.

But the war had only just begun.

I remember carpets of bright mandarins spread over the snow in Abkhazia’s bullet ridden gardens in March 1993. No one would harvest them. Picking a mandarin might mean catching a stray bullet in the head.

If as a foreigner I remember the war just just like yesterday, how vividly do the Abkhazians recall those heavy days? I laughed with them at the irony when Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvilli made his fiery appeal to the Abkhazian people: “Brothers and sisters…!”

Georgia once again hurled the whip down upon Abkhazia this resort season, testing the Abkhazians with sabre -rattling in the Kodorsk Gorge, secret attempts at negotiations, spy planes flying overhead, proposals for a broader autonomy, provocations on election day on the Abkhazian-Georgian border and U.S. mediators visiting Sukhumi. But all this ballyhoo just worsens the cold war between Georgia and Abkhazia.

As we drove into Sukhumi, we were greeted by a poster reading: “Glory to a victorious nation! 1992-1998.”

Is the young unrecognized nation preparing for another war?

Everyone is armed

I voted by the highway near Gagrami and quickly became irritated. I stood beneath the sweltering sun for 40 minutes waiting for a car to pull over and give me a ride. “I guess no one wants to earn anything?” I thought perturbed. Finally, a young man stopped in an old foreign car.

“Where are you going?” he asked.

“To Sukhumi,” I said.

“Get in,” he said.

“How much for the ride?” I asked.

“That’s a bit unnecessary,” he said. “Do I look like a cabbie or something? We give good people free rides here. This isn’t Moscow.” READ MORE